AXT, Inc. (AXTI)

Over the past six months, AXT's stock price has been influenced by strong Q3 2025 earnings driven by indium phosphide demand, poor Q1 2025 financial performance due to Chinese export prohibitions, downgraded Q4 2025 revenue guidance due to fewer export permits, analyst downgrades based on valuation concerns and geopolitical risks, unusual options activity indicating bullish speculation, insider selling totaling approximately $1.74 million, a 709.13% stock increase over the past year reaching a 52-week high, and rising short interest suggesting increased bearish sentiment.

While detailed information on demand seasonality is limited, there are indications of some seasonal patterns and strong underlying demand drivers. Q4 is typically a seasonally down quarter, but AXT experienced strong indium phosphide growth in Q4 2020. The company anticipated increased indium phosphide sales within China for Q2 2025, driven by high demand from cloud and data centers. The data center upgrade cycle, fueled by AI and cloud computing, is a growth catalyst for Indium Phosphide substrates.

AXT, Inc. is a material science company that develops and manufactures high-performance compound and single-element semiconductor wafer substrates like indium phosphide (InP), gallium arsenide (GaAs), and germanium (Ge). These substrates are used in advanced technologies such as broadband, fiber optics, 5G, data centers, AI computing, Wi-Fi, IoT, and lidar.

AXT, Inc. is headquartered in Fremont, California, with manufacturing primarily handled by its subsidiary, Tongmei, in China. The company has partial ownership in ten raw material producing companies in China. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for 87% of the company's Q3 2025 revenue, with China being the largest single market. AXT also has a business presence in Europe, Japan, Taiwan, and North America.

AXT, Inc. has maintained a strong standing in the compound semiconductor market, particularly in the Indium Phosphide (InP) segment, with InP revenues increasing significantly. However, its reputation has been affected by challenges related to Chinese export permits for indium phosphide substrates, leading to downgraded revenue guidance and raising concerns about supply chain reliability and geopolitical factors.

AXT, Inc.'s ownership is a mix of institutional, retail, and individual investors. Major institutional owners include Vanguard Group Inc., Pacific Ridge Capital Partners, LLC, First Beijing Investment Ltd, BlackRock, Inc., and Morgan Stanley. Institutional investors collectively hold a significant portion of the shares. Morris Young holds 5.256% of the equities, and insiders own approximately 11.66% of the company's stock.