BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)

BigBear.ai's stock price has experienced significant fluctuations and underperformed the broader market. A notable event was a significant stock price drop attributed to disappointing revenue figures and negative EBITDA. Concerns over potential share dilution from a proposed increase in authorized shares also impacted discussions around the stock. Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded BigBear.ai's stock from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and reduced its price target from $7.00 to $6.00 in January 2026, citing competitive pressures, go-to-market challenges, and margin pressures. The company announced a strategic partnership with the Kraft Group and New England Patriots in January 2026 to drive digital transformation efficiencies. BigBear.ai also moved to strengthen its balance sheet by significantly reducing its convertible debt, aiming to eliminate approximately $125 million of convertible debt. The company finalized the $250 million acquisition of Ask Sage, a generative AI platform, in December 2025, which is expected to contribute significantly to annual recurring revenue. Insider trading activity in the past six months included sales by the Chief Financial Officer and a Director, while a member of Congress made a purchase. The company reported a 20.1% year-over-year revenue decrease in Q3 2025.

The provided information does not explicitly detail specific seasonal trends for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s products and services. The company's revenue from government contracts can be "lumpy", tied to contract awards, funding cycles, and milestone completion, which can introduce quarterly fluctuations rather than predictable seasonality.

BigBear.ai operates in the Technology sector, focusing on AI and machine learning-powered decision intelligence. The company's solutions are applied in global supply chains & logistics, autonomous systems, and cybersecurity. BigBear.ai also offers national security, supply chain management, and digital identity and biometrics solutions. Its product offerings include data ingestion, data enrichment, data processing, artificial intelligence, machine learning, predictive analytics, and predictive visualization solutions and services. Customers include the U.S. Intelligence Community, Department of Defense, the U.S. Federal Government, as well as commercial sectors. The company's business model is transitioning to a subscription-based software model focused on AI and predictive analytics platforms.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in McLean, Virginia, with a corporate presence in Columbia, Maryland. Additional operating locations include Ann Arbor, Michigan; Charlottesville, Virginia; and Chantilly, Virginia. The company serves customers across the public and private sectors, including the United States and allied nations' defense and intelligence agencies, border protection, transportation security, and various commercial industries globally.

BigBear.ai has been actively working to position itself as a key player in secure, government-grade generative AI, particularly through its acquisition of Ask Sage. The partnership with the Kraft Group and New England Patriots also contributes to its brand visibility and reputation in commercial sectors. However, the company's reputation has faced challenges due to disappointing revenue figures, negative EBITDA, and analyst downgrades, which have led to social media discussions expressing concerns over potential share dilution and intensifying competition in the AI sector.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. has a significant number of institutional owners and shareholders. Major institutional owners include Vanguard Group Inc., BlackRock, Inc., VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, State Street Corp, Geode Capital Management, Llc, IWM - iShares Russell 2000 ETF, Susquehanna International Group, Llp, Citadel Advisors Llc, and Marex Group plc. Institutional investors hold approximately 25.54% to 33.04% of the company's stock. Individual investors and public companies hold a substantial portion as well, with insiders owning around 15.88%.