Ford Motor Company (F)

In October 2025, Ford's stock surged after its third-quarter earnings report, surpassing expectations with an adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.45 and a 9% year-over-year revenue increase to $50.53 billion. However, Ford revised its full-year 2025 adjusted EBIT and adjusted free cash flow outlook downward due to a fire at the Novelis aluminum plant, projecting a $1.5 billion-$2 billion EBIT headwind and a $2 billion-$3 billion free cash flow impact in Q4 2025. Ford anticipates losing 90,000-100,000 units in Q4 due to this disruption but plans to add a third shift for F-150 production to recover 50,000 units in 2026. A positive factor was a $1 billion tariff tailwind expected in Q4 from the U.S. government's expanded parts rebate for domestically manufactured vehicles. Throughout October 2025, several analysts raised their price targets for Ford, generally maintaining "Equal-Weight" or "Neutral" ratings. Despite these recent gains, Ford's stock price has remained largely stagnant over the past five years, underperforming broader market benchmarks like the S&P 500. In June 2025, the broader auto market experienced a cooling off in sales, with a slowdown in the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new-vehicle sales.

The automotive industry is cyclical, with demand influenced by macroeconomic conditions, consumer sentiment, and industry trends. March and September often see peaks in new vehicle registrations. Summer is traditionally a strong selling season. Fall can present opportunities for buyers due to lower dealership traffic. December to February typically experience slower foot traffic at dealerships. The fourth quarter can be weaker for overall auto sales. Festive periods can trigger surges in passenger vehicle sales in some regions. Demand for electric vehicles (EVs) can be uneven and is notably influenced by government incentives and consumer affordability concerns.

Ford Motor Co. is an American multinational automotive manufacturer headquartered in Dearborn, Michigan, founded in 1903. The company produces automobiles and commercial vehicles under the Ford brand, and luxury cars under the Lincoln brand. Its product portfolio includes cars, trucks, SUVs, and performance vehicles. Ford operates through three divisions: Ford Blue (combustion engine and hybrid lineup), Ford Model e (electric vehicles), and Ford Pro (commercial business). Ford also provides financial services through Ford Motor Credit Company.

Ford has a significant global presence, operating in over 125 countries with manufacturing facilities in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, India, the United Kingdom, Germany, Turkey, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and South Africa. Ford also engages in joint ventures in key markets such as China, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey. In 2024, sales in the United States accounted for approximately 68% of Ford's total company revenue. The company holds nearly 13% of the market share in the U.S., about 10% in the UK, and under 2% in China, including its unconsolidated affiliates.

In the past year, Ford's brand reputation has seen both positive recognition and significant challenges. Ford received the most honors of any brand in the J.D. Power 2025 U.S. Initial Quality Study (IQS), with its F-150, F-Series Super Duty, Mustang, and Escape models topping their respective segments. The Lincoln luxury brand also showed improved quality for the second consecutive year. Furthermore, Ford was ranked 13th globally in Time's World's Best Companies of 2025. However, Ford has faced considerable reputational challenges due to a record number of vehicle recalls, issuing over 100 recalls affecting nearly eight million vehicles. The company's Model e (EV) division has also incurred billions in losses as Ford scales up its electric vehicle production, and its EV sales have significantly underperformed initial targets.

Ford Motor Co. is primarily owned by institutional investors, who collectively hold approximately 60% of the company's shares. The Ford family maintains significant control through special Class B shares, which grant them 40% of the voting power despite representing only about 2% of the equity. Major institutional shareholders include The Vanguard Group, BlackRock, Inc., State Street Corporation, Newport Trust Co, and Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. Key individual shareholders include William Clay Ford Jr., James D. Farley Jr., and Alexandra Ford English.