GEO Group Inc (GEO)

The past six months have seen several events impacting The GEO Group's stock. In June 2025, the stock experienced a dip of approximately 6% following Q1 2025 earnings that were slightly below consensus estimates and soft full-year guidance. Despite this, the share price increased by 6.34% from October 28, 2024, to October 24, 2025. In June 2025, GEO announced a new five-year contract with the U.S. Marshals Service for secure transportation services and provided an update on a court settlement allowing full intake at the Adelanto ICE Processing Center in California. The company also announced the activation of the 1,868-bed D. Ray James Facility. In September 2025, GEO was awarded a contract by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for continued services under the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program and announced contracts for three correctional and rehabilitation facilities in Florida. In July 2025, GEO entered into an agreement to acquire the 770-bed Western Region Detention Facility in San Diego, California, for $60 million and closed the sale of its Lawton Correctional Facility in Oklahoma for $312 million, which led to a downward revision of FY25 adjusted EPS and revenue estimates. In August 2025, GEO announced a new $300 million share repurchase program, authorized by its Board of Directors, running through June 2028.

The demand for The GEO Group's services is not typically subject to traditional seasonal fluctuations. Instead, demand is largely influenced by governmental policies, legislative changes, crime rates, and immigration enforcement levels. The electronic offender monitoring market is noted to be buffered against cyclical funding fluctuations, and demand for reentry programs is tied to the continuous process of individuals being released from incarceration, which does not inherently follow a seasonal pattern.

The GEO Group, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, providing security and protection services, including private corrections and mental health facilities. The company owns, leases, operates, and manages secure facilities such as prisons, detention centers, and treatment facilities. GEO Group offers services like secure transportation, electronic monitoring, and rehabilitation programs, including the GEO Continuum of Care, which aims to reduce recidivism. The company also provides reentry services to support individuals transitioning back into the community.

The GEO Group has an international presence, with operations in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.

The GEO Group's brand reputation has been significantly impacted by scrutiny and criticism surrounding the ethics of privatizing correctional and immigration detention services. The company has been a target of boycott campaigns and investor resolutions, particularly in response to its increased ICE contracts and expanded detention bed capacity. Activist organizations, labor unions, and local communities have organized protests and advocated for immigrant rights, opposing GEO's expansion plans and practices. There have also been civil suits by prisoners and their families alleging injuries from riots and poor treatment in GEO-operated facilities. Despite these challenges, GEO Group emphasizes its commitment to providing evidence-based rehabilitation programs through its "GEO Continuum of Care" as a key differentiator, aiming to focus on positive outcomes and reduce recidivism.

The ownership structure of The GEO Group is predominantly institutional, with institutional investors holding approximately 89.95% to 93.3% of the company's shares. Individual insiders own between 1.67% and 4.26% of the company, while retail investors hold approximately 8.32% to 53.36%.