Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)

Origin Bancorp's stock price has been impacted by several key events in the past six months. The Q3 2025 earnings report showed a significant miss on profit expectations, leading to a stock price decline. A $28.4 million charge-off related to alleged fraud at Tricolor Holdings, LLC, and concerns about deteriorating loan quality also contributed to stock price drops. Analyst ratings have fluctuated between upgrades to "strong-buy" and "outperform" and downgrades to "hold" or "sell".

The banking industry, including Origin Bancorp, experiences seasonal trends in loan demand and deposit flows. Loan demand tends to be lower in January and February, increasing in March and peaking around August or September, before declining again towards December. Deposit flows can also exhibit seasonality, with outflows often observed in January and February, and inflows later in the year. Origin Bancorp's management has noted "typically strong seasonal inflows in Q4" for deposits. Interest rate changes are a significant driver of loan demand.

Origin Bancorp, Inc. is a financial holding company operating through Origin Bank, providing banking and financial services to businesses, municipalities, and retail clients. It offers various loans, including commercial real estate, construction, consumer, and mortgage loans. The company also provides deposit services like checking accounts, savings deposits, and money market accounts. Additionally, Origin Bancorp offers mortgage origination, insurance products through Forth Insurance, and other banking services such as internet banking, mobile applications, and cash management.

Origin Bancorp, Inc. has a significant presence across the Southern United States, operating more than 60 locations in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The company is strategically invested in Texas and the Southeast, identifying them as dynamic growth markets.

Origin Bancorp has a positive brand reputation, with Origin Bank being named one of the "Best Banks to Work For" by American Banker for 12 consecutive years. However, the company's reputation has been affected by the significant credit event involving alleged fraud at its borrower, Tricolor Holdings, LLC, resulting in a $28.4 million charge-off, which could negatively impact investor and public perception.

Institutional investors hold a substantial stake in Origin Bancorp, Inc., owning between 57% and 62% of the company. Major institutional owners include BlackRock, Inc., Vanguard Group Inc, Dimensional Fund Advisors Lp, T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc., Royce & Associates Lp, Silvercrest Asset Management Group Llc, VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, State Street Corp, IWM - iShares Russell 2000 ETF, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The company's CEO, Drake Mills, holds a direct ownership stake of approximately 0.6% to 0.7% of the total shares outstanding.