Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

Upstart's stock experienced a decline of 30.03% between April 2025 and April 2026. In November 2025, Q3 results missed revenue guidance due to its "Model 22" AI overreacting to macroeconomic signals, causing a 9.71% stock price drop. In February 2026, a $100 million stock buyback plan was authorized. March 2026 saw high put option activity, signaling bearish sentiment. Despite challenges, Q4 2025 results showed revenue exceeding expectations with a 35% year-over-year increase, and the company provided ambitious three-year growth guidance.

While Upstart's overall transaction volume has grown, specific seasonal patterns are not detailed for all lending products. HELOC demand typically spikes in the springtime for home improvement projects. Summer sees HELOCs used for vacations, and fall for college tuition. Recent trends indicate increased demand for HELOCs and home equity loans due to favorable interest rates.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates an AI lending marketplace, connecting consumers with AI-enabled bank partners. Its core business uses a cloud-based AI lending platform that assesses creditworthiness using non-traditional variables. The platform supports various lending products, aiming to provide superior credit products and enable lenders to approve more borrowers at potentially lower rates.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. primarily serves the United States. Headquartered in San Mateo, California, it has offices in Columbus, Ohio; Austin, Texas; and New York City, NY. Upstart also employs a digital-first model, allowing many employees to work remotely across the U.S.

Upstart's brand reputation has been affected by a class-action lawsuit alleging false and misleading statements about its "Model 22" AI between May and November 2025. The lawsuit claims the company overstated the model's ability to increase loan approval rates, negatively impacting revenue results and financial guidance. These allegations and the stock price drop have strained the company's reputation.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. has a mixed ownership structure including institutional, retail, and individual investors. Major institutional shareholders include Vanguard Group Inc and BlackRock, Inc. Daniel S. Loeb is the largest individual shareholder, owning 31.39% of shares, while co-founder Dave Girouard holds 9.27%.