Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

The past six months have seen several events impacting Starbucks' stock price. Starbucks reported its third-quarter earnings on July 29, 2025, with an EPS of $0.50, missing the consensus estimate, despite revenue slightly beating expectations. The launch of the Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL) in August 2025 generated a sales spike, contributing positively to Q3 2025 revenue. On September 25, 2025, Starbucks announced a $1 billion restructuring plan, including a review of its U.S. operations and the closure of 500 retail stores. Analyst sentiment shifted in October 2025, with TD Cowen reducing its price target for Starbucks. Towards the end of October 2025, the company faced challenges from record-high coffee prices. Seeking Alpha downgraded Starbucks to a "strong sell" on October 27, citing persistent underperformance. Starbucks is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025, and recently announced an increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.62. As of October 25, 2025, Starbucks shares were down approximately 6.6% year-to-date and about 9.3% over the past year, though they experienced a modest 2.2% increase in the preceding 30 days.

Demand for Starbucks products and services exhibits clear seasonality. The company experiences strong demand for its seasonal beverage offerings, particularly the Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL) in the fall and various holiday-themed drinks. The launch of the PSL in August 2025 led to a significant sales spike. Search interest for "Starbucks Coffee Beans" also shows seasonal peaks, notably in December and August. Forecasting demand for Starbucks is complex due to its diverse product line, inherent seasonality, and location-specific variations. The company utilizes seasonal forecasting to prepare for busy periods and adjust inventory.

Starbucks Corporation is a global leader in the coffeehouse industry, operating as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee with three primary segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. The company operates within the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically in the Restaurants industry, offering a wide array of coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single-serve products, ready-to-drink beverages, and various food items. Founded in 1971 in Seattle, Washington, it initially started as a coffee bean wholesaler before expanding into a coffee shop serving espresso-based drinks.

Starbucks has a significant global presence, with over 40,000 locations across 87 countries as of 2024. As of November 2022, 15,873 of its stores were located in the United States. The company began its international expansion by opening its first store in Japan in 1996, followed by Europe in 1998, and China in 1999.

Starbucks' brand reputation has faced significant challenges over the past year. Its brand value plummeted by 36% to USD 38.8 billion in 2025, resulting in the loss of its title as the world's most valuable restaurant brand. The company also fell 30 places in the Brand Finance Global 500 ranking. Key brand strength metrics in the U.S. have notably declined, and a high-profile boycott campaign has further eroded consumer trust. Leadership instability has also contributed to the situation. The company's increased focus on app-based sales and higher prices has drawn criticism, leading to declining sales and dissatisfaction. In China, Starbucks faces intense competition from local rival Luckin Coffee. In response, CEO Brian Niccol implemented the "Back to Starbucks" strategy. However, unionized Starbucks workers are currently voting to authorize a strike, demanding better pay and hours.

Institutional investors hold a significant portion of Starbucks' stock, with institutional ownership recorded at 85.17% as of June 2025. The Vanguard Group Inc. is the primary institutional investor, holding 112.86 million shares as of June 30, 2025. Other major institutional owners include Capital Research Global Investors, BlackRock, Inc., FMR LLC, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Insider ownership is relatively low at 2.18%.